Bay Area Housing Market Data Newsletter

October 2026 (Updated Oct 13)

Past Editions

October 2026 SF Bay Area Market Snapshot banner over the Golden Gate Bridge at dusk

Hard to believe we’re already halfway through October! With Halloween right around the corner, the leaves are turning, the pumpkin patches are packed, and the fall market is officially in full swing. Luckily, there aren’t many tricks hiding in this month’s data, just a few treats depending on where you live. Some pockets of the Bay Area are seeing bidding wars heat up even more, while others are quietly giving buyers more room to negotiate. In this issue, I’ve broken down the latest local sales stats, neighborhood updates, and market trends to help you navigate your next move with more confidence.

Single family home sales volumes continued to slow across both regions. The 3 month rolling average for the Eastbay & Southbay side dipped 2.6% to 3180 sales, while the SF & Peninsula group saw a larger 6.9% drop to 827 sales. The pricing story diverged by region once again: Eastbay & Southbay homes eased back 1.7% to a $2.04M average (with sold $/sq ft holding flat at $1040/sq ft), while SF & Peninsula homes ticked up 0.8% to a $5.37M average as sold $/sq ft held essentially flat at $1629/sq ft. The bidding wars only got hotter at the top: San Francisco extended its lead at 24.1% over asking (from 21.3% last month), Oakland climbed to 20.2% (from 17.6%), and South SF joined the double digit club at 11.7% over. Several others posted solid figures: San Mateo (8.8%), Los Altos (7.9%), Mountain View (7.3%), Palo Alto (6.9%), Sunnyvale (6.8%), Atherton (6.1%), and Cupertino (4.7%). Over the past month, only 7 of the 29 cities sold below their list price: Los Altos Hills (-2.2%), Pleasanton (-2.2%), Dublin (-2.1%), Hillsborough (-2.1%), and San Ramon (-0.4%), plus Livermore and Morgan Hill, which were essentially right at asking. Top movers for price compared to last month: Morgan Hill -6.5%, Los Gatos -6.2%, Fremont -5.7%, and Los Altos Hills -5%; while the upside was led by a big +13% jump for San Francisco (to a $2.91M average), followed by Hillsborough +4.5%, Cupertino +4%, and Los Altos +3.6%.

The condos & townhomes market dipped slightly for both bedroom groups this month. The 2 bedroom group slipped 1.1% to a $780K average, though sold $/sq ft ticked up 0.3% to $648/sq ft. The 3 bedroom group held essentially flat, dipping just 0.2% to a $1.08M average while sold $/sq ft climbed 1% to $653/sq ft. San Francisco once again led both segments in price and percent over asking, and competition there picked up: 2 bed units sold 9.7% over (from 7.4%) at a $1.48M average, while 3 beds went 9.6% over (from 8.2%) at a $2.54M average. While SF has been booming, every other county landed within 2% of asking in both groups. SF’s third bedroom premium also got even steeper: stepping up from 2 to 3 bedrooms now adds 71% to the average price ($1.48M to $2.54M), up from 67% last month, compared to roughly 23% to 51% in most other counties. Biggest price movers for 3 beds were Sonoma -18.9% (last month was skewed with one $7.8M Healdsburg unit) and Alameda -4%, plus Solano +6.2% and SF +3.8%, while the 2 bed side was much quieter (no county moved more than 2.7%).

The large homes market was essentially flat overall on thinner volume, with 8.4% fewer sales for our 3 month figure (294 vs 321 last month). The typical large home is now selling for $6.39M (a 0.1% dip), while sold $/sq ft ticked up 1.2% to $1119/sq ft. San Francisco was the standout once again: the large home count recovered slightly to 12 sales (from 9), while average price jumped 14.3% to $11.46M, sold $/sq ft climbed 10.9% to $2122, and homes went an incredible 18.2% over asking (vs 8.5% last month). San Mateo held onto the top spot as the priciest large home county, up 2.2% to $11.93M, while Santa Clara also had a strong month (+7.2% to $7.22M). On the downside, Napa fell 19% (low sample size of 8 homes), followed by Solano -8.7% and Sonoma -6%. Fun fact: Alameda County’s average lot size nearly quadrupled to 161K sq ft, all thanks to a single Livermore estate sitting on about 92 acres! Without it, the average would have been closer to 47K sq ft.

Lastly, my Heat Map & Companies website has been updated with this month's numbers, so feel free to check it out for an interactive, visual look at your city & beyond! If you have any questions, I'd be more than happy to do a thorough / personalized analysis beyond this data. You can also check out my website for more resources & guides (www.JoshUy.com).

Talk soon,

Josh Uy

Table of detached single-family home sales by city in the East Bay and South Bay over the last 3 months: average sold price, percent over asking, price per square foot, number of sales, and price change versus last month. Saratoga had the highest average sold price at $4,552,437 and Hayward the lowest at $1,005,936. Oakland sold furthest over asking (20.2%) and San Jose had the most sales (1,010). Biggest moves vs last month: Morgan Hill down 6.5% and Los Gatos down 6.2%; Cupertino up 4.0% and Sunnyvale up 2.5%.

Bar chart of the average sold price of detached homes by city in the East Bay and South Bay over the last 3 months. Saratoga is highest at $4.55M, followed by Cupertino ($3.18M) and Mountain View ($3.07M). Hayward ($1.01M) and Oakland ($1.10M) are lowest.

Bar chart of the average sold price per square foot of detached homes by city in the East Bay and South Bay over the last 3 months. Mountain View is highest at $1,773 per square foot, followed by Cupertino ($1,736). Hayward ($628) and Oakland ($650) are lowest.

Table of detached single-family home sales by city in San Francisco and the Peninsula over the last 3 months: average sold price, percent over asking, price per square foot, number of sales, and price change versus last month. Atherton had the highest average sold price at $14,745,000 and South San Francisco the lowest at $1,389,758. San Francisco sold furthest over asking (24.1%), had the most sales (311) and rose the most vs last month (up 13.0%), followed by Hillsborough (up 4.5%). Los Altos Hills fell 5.0% and Foster City 1.6%.

Bar chart of the average sold price of detached homes by city in San Francisco and the Peninsula over the last 3 months. Atherton is highest at $14.75M, then Hillsborough ($10.38M) and Los Altos Hills ($7.46M). South San Francisco is lowest at $1.39M.

Bar chart of the average sold price per square foot of detached homes by city in San Francisco and the Peninsula over the last 3 months. Atherton is highest at $2,705 per square foot, then Palo Alto ($2,310) and Los Altos ($2,215). South San Francisco is lowest at $934.

Table of the average home size and average lot size, in square feet, of detached single-family homes sold by city in the East Bay and South Bay over the last 6 months. Saratoga has the largest homes (3,028 sq ft) and Santa Clara the smallest (1,562 sq ft). Los Gatos has the largest average lot (46,309 sq ft) and Newark the smallest (5,973 sq ft).

Table of the average home size and average lot size, in square feet, of detached single-family homes sold by city in San Francisco and the Peninsula over the last 6 months. Atherton has the largest homes (5,687 sq ft) and South San Francisco the smallest (1,584 sq ft). Los Altos Hills has the largest average lot (68,423 sq ft) and San Francisco the smallest (3,237 sq ft).

Table of condo and townhome sales by county over the last 3 months, for 2-bedroom and 3-bedroom units: average sold price, percent over asking, price per square foot, and price change versus last month. San Francisco is the most expensive county for both 2-bedrooms ($1,483,866) and 3-bedrooms ($2,537,586); Solano is the least expensive ($368,456 and $453,974). 2-bedroom prices rose most in San Francisco (up 1.2%) and fell most in Sonoma and Santa Clara (both down 2.6%) vs last month; 3-bedroom prices rose most in Solano (up 6.2%) and fell most in Sonoma (down 18.9%).

Table of large home sales by county (4+ bedrooms, 4+ bathrooms, 4,000+ square feet) over the last 3 months: average sold price, percent over asking, average square feet, average lot size, price per square foot, average year built, number of sales, and price change versus last month. San Mateo had the highest average sold price at $11,933,947 and Solano the lowest at $1,604,200. San Francisco rose the most vs last month (up 14.3%) and Napa fell the most (down 19.0%).

For more information on how these trends might affect your home values and/or the timing of your real estate moves, please reach out anytime. Note if your city is not listed here, a personalized analysis can be created upon request. You can also visit my website (www.JoshUy.com) which has additional resources for home buyers and home sellers. This sales data was provided by the Bayeast MLS Association and collected through 10/12/26. Data deemed reliable but not guaranteed and is subject to revision.

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Contact Josh Uy, REALTOR, DRE #01952401. Phone 510.449.7280. Email Josh@EverhomeRE.com. Website and QR code both link to www.JoshUy.com. Buying, selling, new homes, and investments.